Is now a smart time to buy in Phoenix? If you have been watching prices, rate headlines, and changing inventory, it can feel confusing. You want a clear read on what is happening right now so you can move with confidence. In this guide, you will get current Phoenix stats, what they mean for you, and a step-by-step playbook to write stronger offers and close smoothly. Let’s dive in.
Phoenix market snapshot: Jan 2026
As of January 2026, the metro Phoenix market sits near a balanced range. The ARMLS January 2026 STAT report shows about 24,358 active listings and ~5.17 months of supply. By common industry rules of thumb, 4 to 6 months suggests balance, which means neither side has a big edge across the board.
Prices are holding relatively steady at the metro level. ARMLS reports a median sales price of $444,740 for January 2026, with an average sales price near $616,010. Homes are taking longer to sell than in the 2021–2022 frenzy, with a median 71 days on market in January 2026.
On the financing side, mortgage rates have eased from prior peaks. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed around 6.09% for the week ending February 12, 2026, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS. Lower rates since mid-2025 have improved buying power and encouraged more owners to list.
What recent trends mean for you
More choice and more leverage
Inventory has grown compared with the post-pandemic lows, which is the main reason buyers now have more options. Local reports note that while closed sales improved late in 2025, pending sales often lagged. As a result, many homes are taking longer to go under contract, giving you more room to negotiate price or ask for credits. See the late-2025 context in Phoenix Agent Magazine’s recap.
Some pockets still move fast
Even in a balanced market, speed varies by neighborhood and price tier. Entry-level homes and properties in highly sought-after pockets can still draw quick interest. If a home is well priced and shows well, expect competition and be ready with a strong pre-approval, clear timelines, and quick follow-through.
Pricing is stable to mixed
At the metro level, price measures look relatively flat to slightly softer in some areas, while certain luxury or high-amenity communities remain firmer. Keep in mind that city and neighborhood stats can differ a lot from the overall average, so you always want to review recent comparable sales in the exact area you are targeting.
Affordability and rates, made simple
Rates have a big impact on what you can comfortably afford each month. Using Freddie Mac’s national benchmark near 6.09% for the week ending February 12, 2026, here is a simple example:
- Purchase price: $400,000
- Down payment: 20% ($80,000)
- Loan amount: $320,000
- At ~6.09% (30-year fixed), principal and interest is about $1,940 per month.
- If the rate were 1 percentage point higher (7.09%), the same loan’s P&I would be about $2,150 per month.
That is roughly an 11% jump in the monthly payment for a 1-point rate increase. You can see why small moves in rates change your buying power. Use the Freddie Mac PMMS for a current benchmark and shop local lender quotes for your situation.
Where buyers have leverage today
With more listings and longer median days on market, you can often:
- Take more time to compare homes.
- Ask for seller credits toward closing costs or a rate buy-down.
- Negotiate on price and repairs where listings sit longer.
Local reporting highlighted that seller concessions and builder rate buy-downs became common in late 2025 and may continue while supply stays higher. See context from Axios Phoenix on concessions and shifting leverage. If demand heats up again, those perks can fade, so timing matters.
Where you should still move fast
When a listing is well priced in a desirable micro-market, waiting can cost you. To compete effectively:
- Have a full pre-approval letter ready, not just a pre-qual.
- Ask your agent to call the listing agent about seller priorities, then tailor your offer terms.
- Be responsive on inspection scheduling and document requests.
- If needed, use a clean escalation clause with clear caps and proof of funds.
Offer strategy in Phoenix
Prepare to win before you write
Sellers want certainty. Two steps help you stand out:
- Get a written pre-approval that states the loan type, approximate rate lock window, and any conditions.
- Request an MLS-based comparative market analysis for your exact neighborhood and price band. Metro averages can mislead. Tools tied to ARMLS give the granular view agents use; see Phoenix REALTORS market stats.
Know the key Arizona contract timelines
In Arizona, the standard Inspection Period in the AAR Residential Resale Purchase Contract is typically 10 calendar days. You must deliver the Buyer’s Inspection Notice and Seller’s Response (BINSR) within that window. The seller then generally has 5 days to respond. Holidays do not extend the inspection period, per AAR’s guidance on Inspection Period timing. Work closely with your agent to keep appraisal and underwriting on schedule and to discuss an appraisal-gap plan if needed.
Tactical moves in a balanced market
Use the conditions around your price band to shape your offer:
- If inventory is favorable, consider offering at or below list with a request for seller credits or a temporary rate buy-down. Axios reported these became common in late 2025.
- If competition is tight, a modest price escalation paired with a flexible closing date or short inspection period can help.
- Flexibility on closing and post-possession can win deals where sellers need time to move. These non-price terms often trade for price or credits.
- Earnest money is negotiable. A higher amount can show seriousness but comes with risk if you later cancel outside the contract’s protections.
Timeline: search to keys
Plan on a full journey that runs about 3 to 4 months for a typical financed purchase in metro Phoenix.
- Search phase: With a median 71 days on market in January 2026, expect time to tour options and watch new listings. Some homes will move much faster.
- Under contract: Standard escrow is about 30 to 45 days for financed buyers. Cash can close sooner.
- Key deadlines: Earnest money is deposited shortly after acceptance per contract terms. The Inspection Period is typically 10 calendar days with a 5-day seller response window. Order appraisal and start formal underwriting early to avoid delays.
Common slowdowns include HOA document delivery, lender underwriting if paperwork is incomplete, appraisal scheduling issues, and occasional title clean-up. Your agent can help you anticipate these and keep the process moving.
Neighborhood and price-band expectations
Metro averages hide wide variation. Central Phoenix, Arcadia-Biltmore, Tempe, the West Valley, Scottsdale, and the Southeast Valley each have distinct medians and days on market. Work from neighborhood-level comps tied to ARMLS and review trend charts for your short list. Your agent can pull recent solds, active competition, and pending trends so you set realistic expectations.
New construction and builder incentives
If you want a new home, ask your agent to compare builder incentives against resale options. In late 2025, concessions and rate buy-downs were common in several segments, including new construction. The right mix of credits and lower monthly payments can sometimes beat a small price cut on a resale. Use the Axios Phoenix overview of concessions as a guide to what may be available.
How we help you buy with confidence
You deserve a steady hand and a clear plan. Our Say Yes to This Address team pairs deep local knowledge with a high-touch, start-to-close experience. With decades of experience, 715 families helped, $392M+ in sales, and a top 1% ranking in Maricopa County, we bring the data, negotiation skill, and coordination you need to say yes to the right address. Whether you are relocating, moving up, or buying your first home, we tailor your search, craft smart offers, and manage every detail through closing.
Ready to make your move in Phoenix? Connect with Colleen Olson to get a personalized game plan and start touring with confidence.
FAQs
Is Phoenix a buyer’s market in early 2026?
- Metro Phoenix sits near a balanced range, with about 5.17 months of supply in January 2026, so conditions vary by neighborhood and price band, per ARMLS January 2026 STAT.
What are current mortgage rates and why do they matter?
- Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed near 6.09% for the week ending February 12, 2026, and a 1-point change can shift a monthly payment by about 11 percent on a typical loan; see the Freddie Mac PMMS.
How much room is there to negotiate right now?
- More listings and longer days on market than 2021–2022 mean more room to ask for credits or price adjustments in many segments, though well-priced homes can still draw multiple offers; see ARMLS stats and late-2025 reports.
How long does a Phoenix purchase take from offer to close?
- Typical escrow for a financed buyer is about 30 to 45 days, with a full search-to-keys timeline often 3 to 4 months, based on January 2026 days-on-market data from ARMLS.
What is the Inspection Period and BINSR in Arizona?
- The standard Inspection Period is typically 10 calendar days, and the BINSR outlines repair requests; holidays do not extend the period per AAR’s guidance.
